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speculation :

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a hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence); "speculations about the outcome of the election"; "he dismissed it as mere conjecture"
an investment that is very risky but could yield great profits; "he knew the stock was a speculation when he bought it"
continuous and profound contemplation or musing on a subject or series of subjects of a deep or abstruse nature; "the habit of meditation is the basis for all real knowledge"
a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence


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